Election season in Poland — what might it mean for the private health sector?

The ongoing elections in Poland, with both candidates competing neck and neck, are expected to have major consequences for the country's health system — but not necessarily in the way one might expect.

Liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, part of Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Platform, narrowly won the first round on 18 May with 31.36% of the vote. His rival, Karol Nawrocki from the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, followed closely with 29.54%. The second-round vote is set for 1 June.

The elections are of particular interest for private healthcare, as Poland may pose a peculiar case where a left-wing victory could lead to a larger private healthcare system. As HBI covered following the 2023 elections, a Polish source stated: "The strange thing with Poland is the left may be more interested in developing private healthcare than Law and Justice!"

"While PiS is a right-wing party, it's almost socialist in terms of economics and definitely against capitalist investors. It wanted to create state-owned oil and industry companies, started to build state-owned airports, and wanted to direct funds to state-owned hospitals. In some ways it acted like an old-time socialist economist."

This political inversion may reflect a broader European pattern, where centre-left parties often see private provision as a means to an end: faster access, reduced waiting lists, and fiscal pragmatism. In contrast, nationalist parties tend to focus more on state sovereignty, leading them to push back against private capital in strategic sectors like healthcare.

Recent policy battles

In April 2025, Poland's parliament passed a government bill reducing health insurance contributions for almost 2.5 million business owners from 2026 onwards. The bill has been criticised for potentially worsening the already stretched public health infrastructure. Sejm member Marcelina Zawisza wrote: "There is a 20 billion złoty shortfall in the system and you are still gutting it."

Health Minister Izabela Leszczyna initially announced she would not accept these changes, then voted in favour of them the following week. Prime Minister Donald Tusk also welcomed the bill's passage, but it was vetoed by President Andrzej Duda (PiS) on 7 May, declaring the law "contrary to constitutional principles of social justice."

Figures from the ruling coalition have criticised Duda's decision and called for a presidential candidate more aligned with the Civic Coalition's objectives.

Market dynamics

Around 70% of Poles use both public and private-pay primary care systems. In recent years, providing private healthcare has become a standard benefit in employment contracts for corporate workers in big cities.

Since Poland's transition to a market-based economy, healthcare management has undergone significant changes. Previous governments encouraged the private sector to build hospitals to address underserved needs, particularly for cardiological treatments.

There is a robust for-profit dentistry sector and a thriving occupational healthcare market, with employers paying monthly subscriptions to give staff fast access to diagnostic and primary care services. Public hospitals also continue to outsource imaging and labs to the for-profit sector.

Joe Ryan, CFO of multinational hospital chain Medicover, commented on the previous PiS administration to HBI: "I think Law and Justice were quite reasonable in terms of increasing funding and contracting private providers. Even though the rhetoric was often anti-private, the party was quite pragmatic. I've never seen a cancer patient refuse private care and choose to die instead, and politicians eventually realise it's about provision.

"The only area where it was really ideological was women's reproductive rights — which in my opinion mixes poorly with politics. It virtually banned abortion with one of the strictest regimes in the EU and defunded assisted reproduction."

Growth outlook

The fundamentals driving the Polish healthcare market appear robust. Grzegorz Orski, Vice-Director at Strategy& and co-author of 'Healthcare in Poland — Growth Potential and Opportunities for Investors', recently told HBI: "We expect the Polish healthcare market to grow at approximately 9% per annum until 2028 due to strong growth drivers in both public and private spend. The ageing population, increasing prevalence of chronic diseases and relatively low spend on healthcare — over 50% lower than Western European peers — necessitate further investments in the public system."

The private segment will also grow, driven by medical subscriptions and rising affluence. Success stories like AHoP and Penta Hospitals reflect this trend, aided by National Health Fund tariff increases and focus on reducing waiting times.

While private health does not appear to be a campaign focus for either candidate — potentially good news for the sector — the state of the public health system may remain uncertain until the elections are decided. For investors and providers, the message might not be that Poland is moving in a specific direction, but that the direction remains open and worth watching.